One last tournament. After Nairobi and Montevideo, the HSBC SVNS 2 Series comes down to this, one last weekend of sevens rugby in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Five nations have already punched their tickets for the season-ending three-tournament HSBC SVNS World Championship Series, which starts in Hong Kong in April. The big show then heads to Valladolid in Spain in May, and wraps up in Bordeaux, France, in early June.
In the women’s competition, Argentina — who finished top of the log in the first two tournaments — as well as South Africa and Spain, head to Sao Paulo safe in the knowledge they are already certain of heading to Hong Kong.
Meanwhile, USA and Germany, who traded first and second in the opening two rounds, have qualified from the men’s side of the draw.
For every other side, it’s still all to play for.
The magic number to qualify for the World Championship Series is 43.
A maximum 20 Series table points are awarded to the side that finishes top of each tournament log — Argentina’s women, with two tournament wins, have a maximum possible 40 points. The number of points awarded drops in twos, down to 10 points for the side that finishes each tournament in sixth place.
You can see the HSBC SVNS 2 Series log so far, here.
A total of 43 points from the three HSBC SVNS 2 tournaments guarantees a top-four finish in both the men’s and women’s competitions, and a ticket to the World Championship Series.
Thanks to their two tournament wins to date, Argentina’s women’s sevens side are guaranteed to finish HSBC SVNS 2 with a minimum 50 points; South Africa and Spain will finish on at least 44.
In the men’s competition USA and Germany will reach at least 48 points.
China’s women’s side will also pass that mark if they finish fourth or higher in Sao Paulo.
But, while China’s World Championship Series future is in their hands, it’s not certain that they will complete the roster.
If either Brazil or Kenya — currently fifth and sixth on the women’s Series log — win the final tournament in Sao Paulo, and China finish fifth, then the final ticket to Hong Kong, Valladolid and Bordeaux changes hands.
Similarly, if China finish sixth this weekend, and either Kenya or Brazil finish second or higher, China drop out of the final qualification place.
It’s even tighter for the two open slots in the men’s competition. Kenya and Uruguay currently hold third and fourth place, and both could also cross the 43-point Rubicon this weekend.
But, if Kenya finish sixth in Sao Paulo, they will finish on 42 points, meaning their place may be determined by points difference if Canada or Belgium — currently fifth and sixth respectively — claim top spot.
Uruguay’s future is even less certain. A fourth-place finish could see their qualification for the World Championship determined by points difference, if Canada or Belgium finish first.
It’s official: the inaugural HSBC SVNS 2 Series is heading all the way to the wire.